When you bet point spread, the key is identifying games where the score is going to be relatively predictable. Once you can reasonable predict the score, or at least the victory margin, you can decide which spreads are going to be beaten and which ones will be covered.

The easiest way to do this is to head to NFL.com and use the fantastic analysis tools provided by the site. Click on whichever game you want to analyze and then simply click on the ‘analyze’ tab. What you’ll be presented with is a side by side comparison graph showing the important stats for each team on offense and defence.

Comparing offenses to offenses and defences to defences isn’t what’s going to win for you though. You need to reverse it and compare the numbers for each teams O and D vs. the other teams counterpart. For instance, compare team A’s offense to team B’s defence and vice versa. What you’re looking for is noticeably large mismatches (or very close matches).

For instance, let’s say the Colts are playing the ‘Niners. You click on the game tab and you see that the Colts offense is ranked #1 in the league, putting up the top numbers for yards gained, TDs, etc. Specifially though, you notice their getting their yards through the air. You then compare that to the San Fran defence and see that their run defence is very strong, but their secondary is incredibly weak.

What do you do? Well, unless the spread is 30 for the Colts, you’re going to pick the Colts to cover. You’ve identified a huge mismatch and you need to take advantage of it. Easy bet.  Conversely, if you saw that the Colts were getting all their yards on the ground, then the odds of the Colts running away on San Fran are much lower and your decision may change.

Using these easily available stats will give you all the information you need to go through each game one at a time and identify the best bets for each week on point spread. Do this, and you’ll see far more wins than you do simply picking games based on who you think will win, or on stats like wins and losses alone. Good luck and good betting!